In retaliation to US strikes on its nuclear facilities, Iranian Lawmakers on Sunday voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.
This is to make good its threats that the US strikes late Saturday night, which destroyed its three nuclear sites, would have everlasting consequences.
Iran had said that ‘there were no signs of contamination at its nuclear sites following the attack’.
Though the final decision to shut the oil choke points lies with top Iranian security officials, (Supreme National Security Council), according to reports, an attempt to shut the oil route risks triggering a fresh round of energy crisis and global recession.
Truth Live News reports that the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical choke points, through which a fifth of global oil and a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas supply flows.
So far, most experts had agreed that Iran would not go that far to close the strait but US actions seemed to have changed that.
Possible implications of Strait of Hormuz closure
Analysts posit that any attempt by Iran to close the strait to shipping traffic by potentially threatening vessels with mines or missiles risked causing an oil supply shock, pushing up inflation and sparking a global recession.
They also warned that it could also trigger a significant military response from the US and its allies.
In a note to clients, Eurasia Group said: “The US has amassed a massive military presence in the Gulf and surrounding region, and a move by Iran against the strait would almost certainly trigger a significant military response.”
According to Ashley Kelty, an oil and gas analyst at Panmure Liberum, another key question was how Iran’s neighbours in the Middle East would respond.
If Tehran tries to block shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz, it will also hurt the exports of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
“Disrupting the Strait of Hormuz is the easiest way that Iran can respond. But the bigger question is: ‘How much support does the Iranian regime have across the Arab world?’
“If they mine the strait, that basically involves all of the Middle East, because there’s no way that the likes of the Qataris and Saudis are just going to sit back and watch as all their exports are shut in,” he said.
The price of oil settled slightly at around $77 per barrel on Friday after Trump vowed to give Iran two weeks to come to the negotiating table, prompting traders to assume there would be no immediate military action.
But analysts now expect the price to surge higher on Monday as the market’s risk barometer goes up, with the threat of $100 per barrel or more.
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities analyst at SEB Research, said: “Above $80 now looks very plausible. The next step from there would be actually losing oil supply to the market, through a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on oil infrastructure inside the Persian Gulf.
The US had joined the war on Iran on Saturday, bombing the country’s three nuclear sites in an operation President Donald Trump described as a spectacular military success.
Dubbed “Operation Midnight Hammer”, the airstrikes targeted Iran’s three nuclear sites, including the primary and most secretive nuclear site – Fordow, Nataz and Esfahan.
The attack by the US followed days of careful deliberations by the Trump’s administration on the consequences of the US direct involvement in the conflict, which has now entered its 10th day.
Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, yesterday, made a u-turn on its earlier claim that Iran had the capacity to produce nine nuclear war heads, saying that it had no such evidence.
Speaking after the attack, Trump said the objective was to destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and stop a nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one sponsor of terrorism.
In a social media post after the attack, Trump said: “We have completed our successful attack on the three nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Nataz and Esfahan.
“All planes are now outside of Iran’s space. A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site – Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home.”
He congratulated the US army for the successful operation, saying “There is not another military in the world that could have done this,” While declaring “Now is the time for peace.”
Iran must now make peace or face far greater consequences – Trump
Also delivering short remarks after the strikes, Trump said Iran must now pursue peace or risk attacks far severe than what had already been done.
He said: “A short time ago, the US military carried out massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
“Everybody heard those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise. Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor of terror.
“Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.
“For 40 years, Iran has been saying, ‘Death to America, Death to Israel.’ They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs, with roadside bombs. That was their specialty; we lost over 1,000 people and hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate. In particular, so many were killed by their general, Qasem Soleimani.
“I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue. I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team like, perhaps, no team has ever worked before, and we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel.
“I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they’ve done. And most importantly, I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight and all of the United States military on an operation the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades.
“Hopefully we will no longer need their services in this capacity. I hope that’s so. I also want to congratulate the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan ‘Razin’ Caine, spectacular general, and all of the brilliant military minds involved in this attack.
“With all of that being said, this cannot continue. There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight’s was the most difficult of them all, by far, and perhaps the most lethal.
“But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes. There’s no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight, not even close. There has never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago.”
Trump credited the success to God, saying: “And I want to just thank everybody, and in particular, God. I want to just say we love you, God, and we love our great military, protect them.
“God bless the Middle East, God bless Israel, and God bless America.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, has called the US strikes outrageous, saying that US has crossed a very big red line.
He said the time for diplomacy had passed, adding that his country had the right to defend itself.
He, therefore, said the US attack would have everlasting consequences.
Also, Iran’s ambassador to the UK, Seyed Ali Mousavi, said: “There’s no intention from our side to go into a military attack.”
Speaking in the same vein, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, described US strikes as a betrayal of diplomacy by the Trump administration, adding that the US must bear the responsibility of outcome of the conflict.
“They cannot talk about diplomacy; they betrayed diplomacy. No one knows what will happen next, but what is sure is that the responsibility of the consequences of this war must be borne by the United States and Israel,” he said.
The diplomat refused to say how Iran might respond to the military strikes by the US, but said Tehran “is entitled to exercise its right of self-defense.”
The Muslim nation also said there were no signs of contamination at its nuclear sites at Isfahan, Fordo, and Natanz, hours after the US targeted the three key facilities.
According to Iran’s National Nuclear Safety System Center, its radiation detectors had recorded no radioactive release after the strikes.
The Center, in a statement, also ruled out any danger to residents living around the nuclear sites.
“There is no danger to the residents living around the aforementioned sites,” it said.
Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation yesterday said it would not allow the development of its “national industry”- an apparent reference to the country’s nuclear development – to be stopped. It also said the attacks on its nuclear sites violated international law.
US strikes give Iran legal right to exit NPT, says Iranian lawmaker
With the US strikes yesterday, Iran’s Parliament Foreign Policy Committee Head, Abbas Golroo, said Iran now had the legal right to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT.
According to the details, Article 10 states that an NPT member has “the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events have jeopardised the supreme interests of its country.”
Also speaking on Sunday, Rafael Mariano Grossi, DirectorGeneral, Intelligence at IAEA, said the agency had no proof Iran was weaponising its nuclear programme. “We didn’t have any indication to that effect and this is something I must point out, and it’s very important, because there has been a long speculation about Iran moving toward a nuclear weapon.’’
He stated that the report on Iran’s nuclear programme was not new.
A report on the nuclear verification in Iran could hardly be a basis for any military action.
“Military action, from whomever it comes, is a political decision that has nothing to do with what we’re saying “ he said.
Iran’s nuclear ambitions obliterated, says US Defence Secretary
Briefing the White House reporters yesterday, US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth,
said that Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been obliterated following the attacks and called on the country to negotiate a diplomatic pathway forward.
He reiterated an unwillingness for America’s intervention in Iran to turn into a protracted waitand said the overnight strikes was “intentionally limited.”
“The order we received from our commander in chief was focused, it was powerful, and it was clear,” Hegseth said.
“We devastated the Iranian nuclear programme, but it’s worth noting the operation did not target Iranian troops or the Iranian people. … Thanks to President Trump’s bold and visionary leadership and his commitment to peace through strength, Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been obliterated.
I would just say, as the president has directed and made clear, this is most certainly not open-ended.
“The most powerful military in the world is postured and prepared to defend our people,” Hegseth said.
He noted that the US was making multiple efforts to communicate with Iranian officials following the US’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites throughboth public and private channels.
“I can only confirm that there are both public and private messages being directly delivered to the Iranians in multiple channels, giving them every opportunity to come to the table.
“They understand precisely what the American position is, precisely what steps they can take to allow for peace, and we hope they do so.”
The US and Iran had held five rounds of nuclear talks, led by special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, since April. A sixth round of talks set for last Sunday was canceled following unprecedented Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and military officials.
The White House had said the US remained in correspondence with Iran last week.