Nigerian politics is never short of intrigue, and as 2027 draws nearer, subtle moves and silent reshufflings are already redefining power within the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC. At the centre of this unfolding storm is Vice President Kashim Shettima, whose political fate appears to be hanging by a thread, as signs from the presidency and the party continue to reveal a chilling indifference towards his relevance in the next electoral cycle.
From the moment this administration took off in 2023, there were noticeable indicators that Shettima’s role within the corridors of power was going to be diminished. Unlike previous vice presidents who maintained visible influence in policy discussions and national matters, Shettima has been largely sidelined. Insiders at the Villa point to his exclusion from key economic decisions and security briefings as evidence of this deliberate cold shoulder.
The treatment is reminiscent of the turbulent relationship between President Olusegun Obasanjo and his then vice president, Atiku Abubakar, in the lead-up to the 2003 elections. Atiku, who was then politically formidable and enjoyed the support of most PDP governors, came close to challenging his boss. It took immense political trade-offs for Obasanjo to secure his second term. But the Tinubu-Shettima dynamic is fundamentally different.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, unlike Obasanjo at the time, is not politically vulnerable. He is a long-standing strategist with a well-oiled national structure, the kind he has built and maintained since the late 90s. From Lagos to Kano and from the Southwest to the North Central, Tinubu’s network remains one of the strongest political alliances in Nigeria’s democratic era. This gives him the latitude to determine the composition of the next ticket without being held hostage by internal party pressures.
During his time as governor of Lagos State, Tinubu famously did not complete his eight-year tenure with a single deputy. That history is instructive. It reinforces the argument that Tinubu views the vice presidency not as a power-sharing seat but as a strategic placeholder—one that must always align with his long-term objectives. With that in mind, it becomes clearer that Shettima may not survive the 2027 calculations.
Tensions reached new heights following the recent North East APC stakeholders’ meeting in Gombe, where chaos erupted after the party’s vice chairman, Mustapha Salihu, endorsed President Tinubu for re-election without mentioning Vice President Shettima. The violent reaction from Shettima’s supporters painted a picture of a political camp feeling marginalised and desperate. Rather than strengthening his grip, the incident only exposed the cracks within the ruling party’s northern bloc.
Sources close to the presidency have revealed that several factors are counting heavily against Shettima. Chief among them is his frosty relationship with the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu. The rift between the two northern heavyweights has grown so intense that Shettima is said to be under a form of discreet surveillance, reportedly due to fears of internal sabotage and regional rivalry within the Villa.
Nuhu Ribadu, a former anti-corruption czar and respected public figure, is widely believed to be positioning himself for national elevation. His closeness to the president, his media-friendly image, and his longstanding loyalty make him a credible contender for the vice presidential slot. Ribadu, once a presidential candidate himself, knows the game well, and he is playing it with quiet precision.
Another name reportedly under serious consideration is Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement and former governor of Kano State. Though currently outside the APC, political realignments are common in Nigerian politics. There have been multiple reports of ongoing rapprochements between Kwankwaso and top APC powerbrokers. Should the reconciliation succeed, Kwankwaso, with his formidable northern following, may emerge as a surprise pick.
Beyond Ribadu and Kwankwaso, there is also mounting pressure from within the APC to consider a northern Christian as a running mate in 2027. Many party leaders believe that repeating the Muslim Muslim ticket that barely passed in 2023 could prove politically suicidal in the next cycle. With increasing discontent over economic hardship, public trust has weakened. The APC may have no choice but to recalibrate to secure broader acceptance.
The First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, and Seyi Tinubu, the president’s son and close advisor, are said to be among those uncomfortable with a continuation of the Muslim Muslim formula. Their argument, sources say, is based on the need to reflect religious balance and national inclusivity in the 2027 ticket. This sentiment is also being echoed by several members of Tinubu’s inner caucus.
The strained relationship between Shettima and key northern stakeholders further deepens his political isolation. In recent times, northern APC governors have appeared less enthusiastic about his continued stay in office, with some quietly aligning with emerging power centres around the NSA and other presidential loyalists. It is a clear sign that Shettima no longer enjoys the broad regional consensus that helped usher in the 2023 victory.
Within the party, the calculations are shifting. Many members are already speaking in muted tones about life after Shettima. While no one dares to say it publicly yet, the inner circle understands the direction in which the wind is blowing. Tinubu is not one to announce his strategy prematurely, but history shows that he often makes decisive changes when the time is right.
A major obstacle for Shettima is that his political influence is largely confined to the North East, and even that is now being challenged. His perceived inability to expand his influence beyond Borno and Yobe has been a sore point for those who believe the vice president should be able to command wider national appeal. Tinubu’s strategists are carefully evaluating these factors as they craft the winning formula for 2027.
The Tinubu camp is aware that 2027 will be a different kind of election. With fuel subsidy removal, currency reforms, and a volatile cost of living, the president will need a ticket that appeals to voters emotionally and symbolically. The days of taking religious or ethnic sentiments for granted are over. The opposition is likely to seize any weakness in the APC formation, especially if the party fails to address internal discontent.
It is no longer a question of *if* Shettima will be dropped from the ticket, but *when* and *how* the announcement will be made. Tinubu is known for playing the long game. Like a grandmaster in chess, he sacrifices pawns not out of malice, but for the preservation of the king’s position on the board. And in this case, the king’s re-election ambition may require a total reshaping of the ticket.
History teaches us that vice presidents in Nigeria rarely end well politically. From Alex Ekwueme to Atiku Abubakar, from Namadi Sambo to Yemi Osinbajo, the number two seat has been more of a revolving door than a ladder to the presidency. Shettima appears to be the latest occupant learning that lesson the hard way.
Unless a dramatic reversal occurs, the stage is being set for a new face to accompany Tinubu into the 2027 battle. Whether that face is Ribadu, Kwankwaso, or a northern Christian from within the APC fold, one thing is certain, Nigerians will not return to the polls with the same configuration as in 2023.
As Napoleon Bonaparte once said, “A leader is a dealer in hope.” Tinubu understands this very well. He knows that in 2027, hope must wear a new face, speak a new language, and reflect the anxieties and aspirations of a different political season. For Kashim Shettima, the writing is already on the wall. And unless something miraculous occurs, he may soon join the long list of vice presidents who served, smiled, and silently exited the stage.
Deacon Darlington Okpebholo Ray MSc, CIPD, Journalist, Political and Social Rights Activist writes from London, England