By Toba Owojaiye (Deputy Editor)
In the span of just a few weeks, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) went from a historic landslide in the European Union (EU) elections to a surprising third-place finish in France’s parliamentary elections. The contrast is so stark that it has left observers questioning the integrity of the process, the motivations of French voters, and the role of political maneuvering in shaping the final results.
But beyond the ballot box, a much larger storm is brewing. France is facing an existential crisis—one that extends beyond its borders. The loss of its grip on Africa, the depletion of its once-secure mineral supply chains, and the rapid demographic shifts caused by mass migration are reshaping its political landscape in ways the establishment is struggling to contain.
On June 9, 2024, National Rally crushed the competition in the EU parliamentary elections, winning every single French department except Paris. This level of dominance is unprecedented. It was akin to a right-wing populist tidal wave sweeping through France, signaling mass dissatisfaction with President Emmanuel Macron and his centrist policies.
The RN’s success was driven by frustration over immigration, economic challenges, and a general disillusionment with the political elite. With Jordan Bardella as the party’s young, charismatic figurehead, RN positioned itself as the true voice of the people, hammering home its opposition to Brussels’ policies and Macron’s governance.
Fast forward to the parliamentary elections, and RN’s fortunes took a bizarre turn. Initially projected to dominate, Le Pen’s party was instead pushed to third place, behind a left-wing coalition and Macron’s centrist bloc. The narrative flipped overnight, leaving many questioning how the same electorate that overwhelmingly backed RN weeks earlier could suddenly reject them.
The answer lies in an orchestrated alliance—an establishment counteroffensive.
Macron, fearing a far-right government, spearheaded a tactical voting strategy known as the “Republican Front.” In this last-minute maneuver, centrists and leftists coordinated withdrawals in key districts, urging their supporters to vote for any candidate who could block RN. This “strategic sacrifice” ensured that in numerous runoffs, RN candidates faced a single consolidated opponent instead of splitting votes among multiple contenders.
The result? A manufactured loss for RN.
What should have been a victory, based on the sheer momentum from the EU elections, was neutralized by an anti-RN coalition. While this strategy has precedent in French politics, its aggressive application in 2024 raises questions about whether the election reflected the true will of the people or a calculated intervention by the political establishment.
France’s political crisis cannot be separated from its declining hold over Africa. For decades, France secured much of its economic stability through Françafrique—a system of political and economic control over its former African colonies. This provided Paris with access to cheap raw materials, especially uranium from Niger, which powered France’s nuclear energy sector.
However, in recent years, a wave of anti-French sentiment has swept across Africa. Coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expelled French military forces and cut off French corporate interests. Russia and China have stepped in, offering African leaders new economic and security alternatives that do not come with France’s colonial baggage.
The result? France’s once-guaranteed access to Africa’s resources is slipping away. This has profound consequences for its economy, forcing Paris to scramble for new sources of raw materials while facing increased competition from global powers.
For the French working class—already burdened by economic uncertainty—this collapse of France’s African dominance translates into job losses, higher energy costs, and a sense that the government has failed them. The RN capitalized on this frustration, arguing that France should turn inward, close its borders, and rebuild from within.
Adding fuel to the fire is France’s rapid demographic transformation. Over the past few decades, millions of migrants—primarily from North and West Africa—have settled in France. Many are now French citizens with voting rights, fundamentally altering the country’s political landscape.
This shift has created a growing divide between traditional French voters, who feel alienated by the changes, and newer citizens, who tend to vote against RN. The left-wing coalition that blocked RN’s victory in the parliamentary elections relied heavily on support from these immigrant communities, whose votes were mobilized to counter the nationalist wave.
The RN and its supporters argue that this is a form of electoral engineering—that the government is using mass migration as a political weapon to dilute the influence of native-born French citizens. Whether true or not, the perception is fueling resentment and strengthening RN’s base for future elections.
RN’s fluctuating performance isn’t entirely new. The party has long been a powerhouse in first-round votes but has struggled in runoff elections, where traditional parties unite against them.
In the 2002 presidential election, Jean-Marie Le Pen advanced to the second round but was decisively defeated by Jacques Chirac when left-wing voters rallied to block him.
In 2017, Marine Le Pen reached the final round but lost overwhelmingly to Macron under a similar anti-RN coalition.
In 2022, despite a stronger showing, Le Pen still fell to Macron due to broad opposition alliances.
This pattern suggests that RN has a deep core of dedicated support but faces an electoral ceiling imposed by strategic opposition.
What Are the Odds?
For a party to win every department except Paris in an EU election and then fall to third place in parliamentary elections within a month is statistically improbable under normal voting conditions. The abrupt shift suggests that external factors—rather than genuine changes in public sentiment—played a decisive role.
Some analysts argue that the EU elections are protest votes, where people express frustration without the immediate consequences of forming a government. Parliamentary elections, however, determine actual governance, leading to more tactical voting. Still, the scale of RN’s drop-off raises suspicions of deliberate electoral engineering rather than a natural shift in voter behavior.
What’s Next for France?
The 2024 elections expose deep fractures in French democracy. The Republican Front may have successfully stopped RN—for now—but the party’s grip on public sentiment is undeniable. If anything, the perception of an establishment conspiracy against them may further radicalize their base and push more voters toward their ranks in future elections.
Beyond the political maneuvering, France is losing control of its economic and geopolitical foundations. Without Africa’s resources, and with its demographic balance shifting, France’s traditional power structures are under siege. The RN’s rise is not an anomaly—it is a symptom of a nation grappling with its identity, its global standing, and its future.
Le Pen and Bardella are unlikely to fade away. If anything, this setback may fuel their 2027 presidential campaign, where Macron—who is constitutionally barred from running again—won’t be able to lead the counteroffensive.
The question now is: Can the establishment keep suppressing a movement that is gaining undeniable momentum, or will the dam eventually break?
France’s political landscape has been shaken, but this battle is far from over.